ANALYSIS: Who is likely to win NPP Dome-Kwabenya’s representation come Saturday January 27th, 2024?

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Adwoa Safo vs Mike Oquaye vs Sheela Oppong Sakyi / Composite by 3News
Adwoa Safo vs Mike Oquaye vs Sheela Oppong Sakyi / Composite by 3News
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As the largest constituency in the country, Dome-Kwabenya encompasses areas such as Haatso, Dome, Kwabenya, Ashongman (old and new), Westlands, Agbogba, and Pillar 2.

It is one of many constituencies that is considered a stronghold for the New Patriotic Party (NPP). With five consecutive elections supporting the NPP since 2004, it has demonstrated its commitment to the party.

In a short comparative analysis of voter trends in the constituency between the NPP and its biggest opposition the National Democratic Congress (NDC), 2004’s election saw the NPP win 65.7% in favour of Prof. Aaron Michael Oquaye, the then-candidate for the NPP.

The NDC’s candidate in 2004, Isaac Adama was only able to pull 32.3%. In the 2008 elections, the contest was between NPP’s Prof Mike Oquaye and NDC’s Sabah Zita Okaikoi, of which the NPP pulled 57.7% vis-a-sis NDC’s 39.5%.

In the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, the constituency made way for its current MP Lawyer Adwoa Sarfo with 63.8%, 68.0%, and 58.4% respectively.

This shows proof of how the constituency has stood by the ruling New Patriotic Party, hence being considered one of its strongholds.

Adwoa Safo
Adwoa Safo is looking to retain her seat, but she has a tough time ahead in Dome-Kwabenya.

The dynamics of primaries as far as the constituency is concerned have been interesting since its creation. Until 2020, the constituency had not kept a particular candidate for more than two consecutive times.

However, in 2020, the delegates gave Hon Adwoa Sarfo the nod to contest on the party’s ticket for the third consecutive time.

In her third term, there have many issues that have caused many constituents to “lose” trust in her. Notable among them was her continuous absence from parliament. Rumours claimed she was having family issues at the time, others claimed she had scores to settle with the party.

Be it as it may, the influence of her actions has negatively affected her image and likeness in the constituencies. Because in the last NPP primaries in 2020, Hon Adwoa Sarfo won with a difference of just 8 votes against her fierce contender Hon Aaron Mike Oquaye Jnr who is the son of the former speaker of parliament.

The votes were 496 to 488.

On Saturday, January 27, 2024, delegates of the Dome-Kwabenya constituency will go to the polls to elect their parliamentary candidate who will stand on the ticket of the New Patriotic Party.

Mike Oquaye Jnr
Mike Oquaye Jnr is looking to unseat the incumbent after his loss to her in previous primaries

This fierce contest is between Hon Adwoa Sarfo who seeks to be elected for the fourth consecutive time, Hon Aaron Mike Oquaye Jnr who is not a first-timer in this election, and Sheela Oppong Sakyi, a legal practitioner and strategist at the office of the First Lady.

The question on many minds is, “Will Adwoa Sarfo be able to win this seat amidst all these challenges and challengers?” On the 14th of September 2023, Hon Adwoa Sarfo released a communique and video rendering an unqualified apology to President Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffo-Addo, the leadership of the New Patriotic Party and other party officials, and the people of Dome-Kwabenya.

In the circulated video, she stated that she was struggling with both personal and family issues during her parliamentary absence.

Also, she has vigorously been campaigning and apologising to the constituents, but will this be enough to put her back into the good books of the people of Dome-Kwabenya?