The Governance Research Bureau, in collaboration with Media Generals Election Command Centre, says the NDC can win the 2020 elections if they increase their average votes in their strongholds by 115,000.
For the NPP, they need to increase their average votes in the swing regions by 450,000 to clinch victory, according to the Bureau.
This winning formula was prescribed by Dr. Kwame Asah Asante and Dr. Ezekiel Nii Nortey, both resource persons from the Governance Research Bureau, while discussing the 2020 elections from the perspectives of political science and statistics on TV3’s Election Watch programme last Sunday.
The formula is based on the Bureau’s analysis of EC’s certified results of the two parties since 1992.
The resource persons said in addition to the NDC increasing their votes in their strongholds by 115,000, the party should also maintain their average votes of 1,069,039 in NPP strongholds and 2,515,421 in the swing regions.
For the NPP, Dr. Asah Asante and Dr. Nii Nortey recommended that while the party should increase their votes in the swing regions by 450,000 votes, they should maintain their average votes of 2,118,663 in their strongholds and 630,503 votes in NDC strongholds.
Speaking on the formula they said both the NDC and NPP needed to perform better in their opponent’s strongholds as well as the swing regions to win the elections, stressing that other variables, such as the economy, infrastructure, health, and education, among others, could alter the results either way.
They said for the parties to win they should maintain their national average votes and target the votes of the smaller parties.
Dr. Asah Asante, who is also a senior lecturer in the department of Political Science at the University of Ghana, Legon, said the performance of the NDC and NPP in the swing regions would determine the winner, adding that winning in their strongholds alone would not be enough.
For his part, Dr. Nortey, also a senior lecturer at the department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, also at the University of Ghana, Legon, said the parties should strive to capture much more votes from their opponent’s strongholds and the swing regions to secure victory.
Election Watch airs on TV3, every Sunday from 4pm.
By Maxwell Nkrumah|3news.com|Ghana