ASEC projects up to 9% drop in fuel prices

The Africa Sustainable Energy Centre (ASEC) has announced a projected 5–9% drop in fuel prices across the country in the upcoming pricing window, driven primarily by the recent appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar.

Ghana operates a bimonthly fuel pricing system, and as the next window approaches, market indicators point to a significant shift in pricing dynamics.

The strengthening of the cedi means importers now require fewer local currency units to purchase the same volumes of petroleum products.

This development is expected to translate directly into lower pump prices, providing much-needed relief to consumers.

According to ASEC’s market assessment, petrol is expected to sell between GHS 12.00 and GHS 12.60 per litre, while diesel prices are forecast to range from GHS 12.60 to GHS 13.20 per litre.

This represents a reduction of between 5% and 9% compared to the previous pricing window. While global crude oil prices have also seen a decline, from approximately $85 per barrel in January to around $64 currently, the appreciation of the cedi is cited as the more decisive factor in the projected price reduction.

“As petroleum imports are denominated in US dollars, a stronger local currency directly lowers acquisition costs for Ghanaian fuel importers,” ASEC noted in a statement on May 30, 2025.

The Energy Think tank anticipates continued stability in global oil markets, with crude prices expected to average between $62 and $65 per barrel for the remainder of the year.

“This outlook is supported by increased production from OPEC+ and reduced global demand, particularly in the US and China, amid ongoing trade tensions,” ASEC added.

Despite the positive short-term forecast for consumers, ASEC warns of broader economic implications.

“As an oil-exporting nation, Ghana’s revenues are partially tied to global crude prices. The drop in international oil prices could lead to lower government earnings from upstream petroleum operations, prompting potential production increases to offset revenue losses,” the statement explained.

While the projected reduction in fuel price is welcome news for consumers, the complex interplay between global markets and domestic economic factors plays a role.

ASEC reiterated its commitment to supporting Ghana’s energy sector through rigorous analysis and insights that serve both policy and the public interest.

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